By 
Egyptians go to the polls May 23 and May 24 in only the second presidential election in the country's 2,053-year -old history. If there is a runoff between the top two candidates, that election will be held June 16 and June 17.The runup to the elections has been stormy. Violent street clashes between the ruling military junta and members of contending political groups have erupted almost daily since 23 candidates announced their Presidential ambitions.
Now that field has been pared to 13 after 10 candidates were disqualified by a citizens' "commission" that itself has been challenged.
Still, according to the most recent street speculation in Cairo, the four leading contenders are:
- Amr Moussa, the former secretary-general of the Arab League
- Ahmed Shafiq, one of Hosni Mubarak's former prime ministers
- Abdul Moneim Aboul Fotouh, a former Muslim Brotherhood leader
- Mohammed Mursi, the Muslim Brotherhood's candidate
Of the four candidates, Moussa is considered the strongest vote getter. But winning votes in Egypt isn't always the standard it might be in other countries.
A military junta has ruled Egypt for at least 50 years. Certainly the army called the shots during the 42-year reign of deposed President Hosni Mubarak. The army formally took control of Egypt on Feb. 11, 2011 when Mubarak officially stepped down.
The generals are scheduled to hand power back to the elected president July 1. But don't bet on that either because of the army's favorite candidate. He is Ahmed Shafiq.
Shafiq, was allowed to re-enter the race after he was disqualified in late April. The reversal drew angry reactions from at least one key Islamist group. Some analysts believe it could complicate, or even derail the election.
At issue is the law that was used to ban Shafiq in the first place. The law was approved by parliament and later by the military junta. The constitutional court will review the ban within 45 days.
That "review" will go nowhere if Shafiq is elected. He will be allowed to remain as president even if the court upholds the law banning him.
The military will somehow juggle the results to put Shafiq in Mubarak's former suite. Why? Power, greed and security.
The top generals have become wealthy through years of successful real estate speculation and acquisitions. They and their families enjoy a lifestyle that only royalty could experience in another land. The generals have good rapport with their counterparts in the U.S. and Russia.
Those are only a few of the reasons the army won't allow a radical or non-Islamic candidate rule the country.
Mohammed Mursi, the Muslim Brotherhood's candidate, heads the movement's political party that holds nearly half the seats in parliament. He is, like Moussa, considered to be a strong vote-getter.
Abdul Moneim Aboul Fotouh, a former Muslim Brotherhood leader, is also the most vocal. Fotouh's moderate stance has won him widespread secular support.
He was a leading force in the militant Islamist student movements of the 1970s; one of the Muslim Brotherhood's point men for aiding the mujahideenin Afghanistan during the 1980s; and a member of the Muslim Brotherhood's Guidance Office for 22 years.
He has earned the endorsement of Egypt's most influential Salafist organizations, al-Dawa al-Salafiyya and its political arm, the Nour Party, as well as the backing of U.S.-designated terrorist organization al-Gama'a al-Islamiya
But Fotuh's election won't endear him to Washington and Israel. He has refused to recognize Israel; supports ending gas sales to Israel' and has indicated that he would either end or amend the Camp David Accords, which he says were "imposed" on Egyptians.
Stay tuned. The fireworks are only beginning.
